2021對沖疫情沖擊，多國競掀基建潮

2021對沖疫情沖擊，多國競掀基建潮
當經濟不振時，政府最擅長、也最有可能推動的是什么？我們從美國大蕭條時期和日本失去的30年里看到的經驗是：大興土木、大修基建。

　　美國眾議院于日前通過了歷史性的1.2萬億美元基礎設施法案，拜登總統為此提出的口號是“建設更美好美國”。這是自20世紀50年代艾森豪威爾發展州際公路系統以來，美國在基建方面的最大投資計劃。AT＆T首席執行官約翰·斯坦基預測，2022年將是美國基礎設施投資的大年。拜登則稱，美國即將迎來“基礎設施建設的十年”，美國經濟將進入“長期繁榮”的十年。

　　12月1日，歐盟委員會批準了對外基建投資計劃，歐盟委員會主席馮德萊恩把該計劃作為歐盟未來的主要對外經濟政策之一。歐盟提出的“全球門戶”計劃，總投資將超過3000億歐元，希望和中國以及美國在基建這一領域進行競爭。

　　12月11日，中國國家發改委提出，適度超前開展基礎設施投資。

　　回看歷史，經濟借助科學進步、技術突破經歷一段長期的快速發展之后，會進入一個增速穩定甚至下降的階段。該階段，因經濟蛋糕不能繼續做大，各階層通過過度競爭的手段搶食有限的利益，在此過程中，占據強勢地位的階層將獲得更多利益，從而導致貧富差距的進一步拉大、階層的分化、社會的動蕩。為了彌合這些擴大的矛盾、維持經濟的穩定和社會結構的有序，人為增加就業崗位、加大政府干預力度是過去100多年市場經濟國家的常規操作。

　　不少經驗證明，在經濟低迷期，穩定經濟最好的方式是發展基建，或許現在許多國家又到了這樣的時期。不過也該看清楚，興修基建對促進經濟發展更具有可持續性。近90年前，為了應對1933年高達25%的失業率，當時的美國總統羅斯福在上臺初期，開始推行基礎建設“以工代賑”的羅斯福新政；1935年，羅斯福又推出了公共事業振興署，幾乎囊括了所有能想到的對公眾有益的項目：高速公路，養護環境，水利設施，維護公共衛生，再造森林，防控洪災等，甚至還包括流浪狗收留站、圖書館等在當時看來“華而不實”的內容。從羅斯福新政的經驗來看，我們完全可以把基礎設施投資的概念放寬一些，圖書館、博物館、國家公園乃至流浪狗收容站，這些設施在中國遠遠談不上飽和，以21世紀的標準來說甚至可以說得上是稀缺了。

　　中國財政科學研究院金融研究中心副主任封北麟表示，中央提出2022年適度超前的基建投資概念范圍還可以擴大和升級，應當圍繞5G、人工智能、智慧城市、綠色投資等補短板領域展開。所謂“適度超前”，隱含著提高基建的技術標準，科技化、智能化水平更高，相應投資力度會更大，經濟長期可持續推動力會更強。

　　從各國經濟發展經驗來看，加強公路、港口、電網、信息數據基礎設施建設，是創造機會和促進經濟發展的關鍵措施之一。一是基建投資項目對經濟的拉動作用，主要體現在對上下游產業比如鋼筋、水泥、機械、信息化、數字化等的需求刺激，以及直接提供就業崗位；二是通過基礎建設本身促進經濟增長，提升物流速度，增加就業人員收入，刺激消費；三是提升基建投資概念，促進為下一步經濟發展提供可持續推動力的基礎建設。在全球歷經新冠肺炎疫情一波一波的沖擊中，為保障社會和經濟平穩發展，各國政府多方入手努力創造更多就業機會，維持更多人的穩定收入和生活基本狀態，可以說，刺激基礎設施建設是對沖全球疫情之下經濟下行的一個現實措施。不過，也需對基建投資理念有更長遠的考慮。

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What do governments do best, and are most likely to promote, when the economy falters? The lesson we learned from the Great Depression and Japan's lost 30 years: building, overhauling infrastructure.

"Building a Better America" was president Joe Biden's slogan after the House of Representatives passed a historic $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill. It is America's biggest infrastructure investment since Dwight Eisenhower developed the interstate highway system in the 1950s. AT&T CEO John Stankey predicts 2022 will be a big year for infrastructure investment in the United States. Mr Biden said the US was on the verge of an "infrastructure decade" and a decade of "long-term prosperity".

On December 1, the European Commission approved a plan for outward investment in infrastructure, which European Commission President Von der Leyen described as one of the eu's key external economic policies for the future. The EU's "global gateway" initiative, with a total investment of more than 300 billion euros, hopes to compete with China and the United States in the field of infrastructure.

On December 11th China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) called for a "modest advance" in infrastructure investment.

Looking back at history, after a long period of rapid economic development with the help of scientific progress and technological breakthroughs, the economy would enter a stage of steady growth or even decline. At this stage, as the economic pie cannot continue to grow, all classes grab limited benefits through excessive competition. In this process, the class with a strong position will gain more benefits, which will further widen the gap between the rich and the poor, the division of class, and social unrest. In order to bridge these widening contradictions and maintain economic stability and orderly social structure, artificially increasing employment and increasing government intervention has been the routine operation of market economy countries in the past 100 years.

Experience has shown that the best way to stabilise an economy in a downturn is to build infrastructure, as may now be the case in many countries. However, it should also be clear that building infrastructure is more sustainable for promoting economic development. Nearly 90 years ago, In response to the unemployment rate of 25 percent in 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt launched the New Deal, a cash-for-work program for infrastructure construction. In 1935, franklin Roosevelt, introduced a public works progress administration, contains almost all can think of is beneficial to the public of the project: highway, curing environment, water conservancy facilities, maintain public health and rebuilding forest, control flood, etc., and even the stray dogs who stand, libraries, and looks at the time the content of the "eye candy". If Roosevelt's New Deal experience is anything to go by, we can certainly broaden the concept of infrastructure investment. Libraries, museums, national parks and even shelters for stray dogs are far from saturated in China, and even scarce by 21st-century standards.

Feng Beilin, deputy director of the Financial Research Center at the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, said the scope of infrastructure investment proposed by the CENTRAL government in 2022 can be expanded and upgraded, and should focus on areas such as 5G, artificial intelligence, smart cities and green investment to strengthen weak links. The so-called "moderately advanced" means that the technical standards of infrastructure construction will be raised, and the level of technological and intelligent construction will be made higher. The corresponding investment will be greater, and the long-term sustainable driving force of the economy will be stronger.

The economic development experience of various countries shows that strengthening roads, ports, power grids and information and data infrastructure is one of the key measures to create opportunities and promote economic development. First, the pulling effect of infrastructure investment projects on the economy is mainly reflected in stimulating the demand of upstream and downstream industries, such as steel bar, cement, machinery, informatization and digitalization, as well as directly providing jobs. Second, infrastructure construction itself can promote economic growth, improve the speed of logistics, increase the income of employed people and stimulate consumption. Third, upgrade the concept of infrastructure investment and promote infrastructure that provides sustainable impetus for the next step of economic development. In order to ensure stable social and economic development, governments around the world are making efforts to create more jobs and maintain stable income and basic living conditions for more people amid waves of COVID-19. It can be said that stimulating infrastructure construction is a practical measure to counter the economic downturn under the global epidemic. But there is also a need to take a longer view of the infrastructure investment philosophy.